![]() At the end of the day, sports are ultimately played by human beings, not statistics, so always take any predictions of future results, based on past results, with a grain of salt. The reader should assume there is some margin of error on any statistic on the probability of winning and expected return anywhere on this page. ![]() To get an understanding of how extra points affect the probability of winning, I created my Wizard Teaser Equation. To save time, rather than analyzing all 12 known types of parlay cards, I analyzed five types. Besides sample size variation, I also had to make assumptions about how point spreads were created on teaser cards. I started with 1994 because that was the year the two-point conversion rule was introduced. ![]() The analysis on this page is based on the 4450 NFL games between the 1994 to 2012 seasons. ![]()
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